
Budget Briefing · 12 May 2026
The 12 May
Transition.
The Federal Budget rewrote the Australian property thesis. From July 2027, tax efficiency is reserved exclusively for new builds. We map sophisticated capital to the only assets that still work.

#1 International Bestseller · Dax Stanley
A boutique advisory built on algorithmic precision and architectural quality.
Dax Stanley's methodology combines high-frequency market data with a deep understanding of the 2026 legislative pivot. We don't find homes — we engineer portfolios for the new rules.
Asset Index / 01 — 07
The only seven asset classes worth a serious investor's attention.
House & Land — Growth Corridors
The cornerstone post-2026 asset. Maximum land-to-asset ratio with full tax retention.
Off-the-Plan Townhouses
Boutique inner-metro yield with preserved CGT indexation and architectural quality tenants pay for.
NDIS / SDA — Specialist Disability Accommodation
Government-indexed high yield with a social mandate. Newest-build asset class by design.
Dual-Occupancy & Auxiliary Dwellings
Two incomes, one title, full new-build tax treatment.
Co-Living New-Build
Architect-designed shared dwellings producing yields a standard rental can't match.
Build-to-Rent Participation
Institutional-style exposure to the Budget's most-incentivised asset class.
Research Notes
All insights →The grandfathering deadline: a pre-1 July 2027 portfolio checklist
Every established-stock position settled before 1 July 2027 keeps full pre-Budget tax treatment for life. Here's the audit we're running on every client portfolio.
9 min read
CGT indexation vs the 50% discount: the new-home exemption explained
From 1 July 2027 the 50% CGT discount is replaced with inflation indexation — except for new homes. We model both outcomes side-by-side.
7 min read
Why new builds are the only negatively-geared play from 1 July 2027
The day after the Federal Budget, the investor playbook narrowed to a single asset class. Here's why the smart money has already started rotating.
8 min read
House-and-land vs off-the-plan townhouses under the post-2027 regime
Both asset classes retain full tax treatment. The difference is in cash flow profile, depreciation curve, and corridor exposure. We model both side-by-side.
10 min read
NDIS / SDA: the highest-yield asset class the Budget didn't touch
Specialist Disability Accommodation continues to deliver 10-14% gross yields, fully government-backed, and sits inside the new-build tax envelope. Here's the structural case.
8 min read
Dual-occupancy: how two incomes on one title rewrite the cash-flow model
A single block, two dwellings, two rental incomes, one set of land costs. In a post-2027 world where every new build counts, dual-occ is doing more work than it gets credit for.
7 min read
The 5% Deposit Scheme is uncapped — what changed 1 October 2025
Quietly, the most important structural change to first-home-buyer access in a generation has gone live. Here's how investor strategy bends around it.
6 min read
Co-living and build-to-rent: the institutional thesis arriving for retail investors
Two asset classes that lived inside super funds and REITs are now accessible at retail scale — and both qualify for post-2027 tax treatment.
9 min read
Where the $2B Infrastructure Fund actually lands: 2026 corridor map
The Budget's housing-enabling infrastructure money is not evenly distributed. Hera's corridor index shows where the capital is going — and what that does to land values.
11 min read
SMSF property strategy under the new CGT regime
Self-managed super was already a strong structure for property. The 2026 CGT changes — and the new-build carve-out — make it materially stronger again.
8 min read
Depreciation schedules after 1 July 2027: still the hidden return driver
Division 40 and Division 43 deductions are untouched by the Budget — but they only apply meaningfully to new builds. Here's why the depreciation gap widens from 2027.
7 min read
Reading the RBA cycle: rates, serviceability, and the 2026-2028 acquisition window
The cash rate trajectory and the grandfathering deadline are on a collision course. The investors who time both win the cycle.
8 min read
End of 2025: positioning the portfolio for the 18-month grandfathering runway
With 18 months until the 1 July 2027 grandfathering deadline, December is the moment to lock in 2026 acquisition timing. We share the framework we are running with every client.
9 min read
Approvals soften in December — but 2025 finishes on a structural high
Dwelling approvals dipped 14.9% in December, yet Q4 finished 3.6% up on the quarter. The HIA's read: 2025 ended with the strongest annual base in three years.
7 min read
December 2025 dwelling prices: the upswing cools, the new-build gap widens
Cotality's December index shows the broader upswing slowing to +0.5% for the month. Under the surface, new-build product is decoupling from the secondary market.
7 min read
4,000 lots at Karnup: Western Australia joins the growth-corridor conversation
The WA Government's Karnup release adds 4,000 residential lots south of Perth and signals that the corridor playbook is no longer just an east-coast story.
6 min read
Penrith and the Western Sydney Airport: positioning ahead of 2026 opening
The $5.3 billion Western Sydney Airport opens in 2026, with Penrith 25km away at the centre of Australia's largest planned employment corridor. We map the investor entry points.
10 min read
3,000 homes at Catherine Field: South-West Sydney's next supply unlock
The Minns Government's fast-tracked rezoning of the 164-hectare Springfield Road precinct adds another 3,000 homes to South-West Sydney's pipeline — and reshapes the corridor's investor math.
7 min read
November RBA pause: what a holding pattern means for new-build acquisition
The RBA's November decision to hold rates steady extends the borrowing-capacity window without unleashing a price surge. For new-build investors, that is the ideal acquisition backdrop.
6 min read
$283K per permitted lot: what the Logan corridor transaction tells us
Ausbuild's $40m off-market purchase of a 141-lot Chambers Flat site re-priced the Logan growth corridor in a single transaction. We unpack the read-through for retail investors.
7 min read
Kinma Valley first move-ins: the family-home signal investors should not miss
The first families have moved into Stockland's Kinma Valley in Moreton Bay. PropTrack data confirms what the project's velocity already signalled: families want larger new homes, and they want them in growth corridors.
6 min read
October 2025: where the institutional money is buying corridor land
From Logan to Western Sydney to Moreton Bay, October's off-market land transactions tell a clear story about which corridors institutional capital believes in.
8 min read
Launch day: what changes for new-build investors when FHBs go uncapped
From today, every eligible first home buyer in Australia can access a 5% deposit with the Commonwealth guarantee. The structural floor under new-build demand has just been poured.
7 min read
September 2025: the final pre-Budget acquisition window
Q3 2025 closed with the strongest combined-capitals quarterly print in two years. The market entered Q4 with renewed momentum — and seven months until the 2026 Budget would change the rules entirely.
5 min read
August 2025: Perth crosses Melbourne
Perth's median dwelling value exceeded Melbourne's in August 2025. A complete reordering of the Australian capital league table in three years.
5 min read
July 2025: the third cut
Cash rate to 3.60% on 8 July 2025. Three cuts in five months. Investor activity hit a 30-month high.
5 min read
June 2025: EOFY 2025 — recovery in motion across all capitals
FY25 closed with combined capitals +5.5%. Perth +12.1%, Brisbane +8.0%, Adelaide +9.4%, Sydney +2.7%, Melbourne –1.8%.
5 min read
May 2025: federal election and the housing platform
The Albanese Government was re-elected with an expanded majority on 3 May 2025. Housing was the dominant policy issue of the campaign.
5 min read
April 2025: the second cut
On 1 April the RBA cut a further 25bps to 3.85%. Two cuts in two months. Bond market priced terminal at 3.10% by year-end.
5 min read
March 2025: borrowing capacity reopens
APRA's serviceability buffer stayed at 3.0% but the underlying assessment rate fell with the cash-rate cut. Maximum borrowing for a typical investor expanded ~5%.
5 min read
February 2025: the first RBA cut
On 18 February 2025 the RBA cut 25bps to 4.10%. The first cut of the cycle. Property markets responded within weeks.
5 min read
January 2025: vacancy ticks up — the first cooling signal
National vacancy rose to 1.6% from 1.0% twelve months earlier. The rental crisis didn't end, but it stopped tightening.
5 min read
December 2024: CY2024 — Perth +19.1%, Sydney +2.3%
Calendar 2024 closed with extreme dispersion: Perth +19.1%, Brisbane +12.1%, Adelaide +13.1%, Sydney +2.3%, Melbourne –3.0%.
5 min read
November 2024: the construction pipeline cracks
Multinational builder Beechwood Homes collapsed in late November. Several smaller Tier-3 builders followed. Build-cost inflation re-accelerated.
5 min read
October 2024: the US Fed cuts 50bps
Powell delivered a 50bp cut. The Australian dollar weakened. Bond market priced first RBA cut for Q1 2025.
5 min read
September 2024: Sydney rolls over
Sydney values fell 0.1% in September — the first monthly decline since the recovery began. Affordability finally bit.
5 min read
August 2024: SDA volumes hit new records
NDIA SDA payments rose past $1.2 billion annual run-rate. Investor enquiry into SDA product reached an all-time high.
5 min read
July 2024: the soft data turns
Q2 CPI printed at 3.8% YoY — the surprise was the persistence. The first cut got pushed from late 2024 to early 2025. Property markets ignored it.
5 min read
June 2024: EOFY 2024 — Perth runs the table
FY24: combined capitals +8.0%, Perth +23.6%, Brisbane +15.8%, Adelaide +15.4%, Sydney +6.3%, Melbourne +1.3%.
5 min read
May 2024: 2024 Budget — Help-to-Buy and Future Made in Australia
Chalmers' third Budget. The Help-to-Buy shared-equity scheme expanded. Help-to-Build incentives for institutional BTR. Modest tax measures, big supply-side signal.
5 min read
April 2024: depreciation reform proposals surface
A discussion paper out of Treasury floated tightening Division 40 depreciation rules on residential. Nothing changed — but the signalling was unmistakable.
5 min read
March 2024: another pause, and the soft-landing call
Cash rate held at 4.35%. US Fed paused. The 'soft landing' became consensus globally. Bond market priced first Australian cut for late 2024.
5 min read
February 2024: the rental crisis deepens
National vacancy at 0.7%. Rental growth still running 8.5% YoY. The political conversation pivoted permanently to supply.
5 min read
January 2024: Stage 3 redesigned
Albanese restructured Stage 3 tax cuts to skew toward low-and-middle income. Average household gained roughly $1,500. Borrowing capacity at the median expanded for the first time since 2021.
5 min read
December 2023: CY2023 prints +8.1% nationally
Calendar 2023: combined capitals +8.1%, Perth +15.2%, Brisbane +13.1%, Sydney +11.1%, Melbourne +3.5%, Hobart –0.8%.
5 min read
November 2023: Brisbane crosses Melbourne
Brisbane's median dwelling value exceeded Melbourne's for the first time in modern record-keeping. The capital-city league table re-ordered in real time.
5 min read
October 2023: Bullock's first hike
New RBA Governor, same playbook. Cash rate to 4.35%. The market briefly wobbled — and then absorbed it.
5 min read
September 2023: co-living and rooming houses go mainstream
QLD planning reforms expanded permissible co-living typologies. Investor enquiry into 6–8 bed rooming-house product spiked.
5 min read
August 2023: rents up 25% since the start of the pandemic
Capital-city rents had risen approximately 25% since March 2020. The cumulative compounding rental yield repriced the entire investor proposition.
5 min read
July 2023: another pause — and the build-cost story stabilises
Cash rate held at 4.10%. ABS construction-cost index slowed to +3.2% YoY from +14% the year prior. New-build economics started to make sense again.
5 min read
June 2023: EOFY 2023 closes with the recovery in motion
FY23 closed with national values down 2.0% — barely. Brisbane +0.5%, Perth +4.0%, Adelaide +0.0%. The drawdown story was already historical.
5 min read
May 2023: the 2023 Budget, immigration and housing
Net overseas migration projected at 400,000 for 2022–23 and 315,000 for 2023–24. Build approvals running at decade-lows. The supply–demand gap formalised in Budget papers.
5 min read
April 2023: the recovery prints
Sydney +1.3% for the month. The fastest turn from peak-to-trough-to-positive since 1989.
5 min read
March 2023: SVB collapses — and the RBA pauses
Silicon Valley Bank failed on 10 March. Global rate expectations collapsed inside a week. The RBA hiked once more in April and then held.
5 min read
February 2023: the RBA signals more to come
Cash rate to 3.35%. Lowe's statement removed the 'patient' language. Bond market priced terminal at 4.10%.
5 min read
January 2023: vacancy at 0.8% and rents at +10% YoY
The rental crisis went mainstream. Sky News led every property segment with vacancy and immigration.
5 min read
December 2022: the slowest growth Christmas since 2018
EOFY-H1 closed with national values down 5.3% calendar-year. The first negative calendar year since 2018.
5 min read
November 2022: the eighth straight hike
Cash rate at 2.85%. National values down 7.0% from peak. And listings still 20% below trend.
5 min read
October 2022: the Labor Budget — restraint and the housing accord
Chalmers' first Budget. Modest stimulus, but the National Housing Accord set a 1-million-new-home target for 2024–2029. The supply story was now official policy.
5 min read
September 2022: cash rate to 2.35% and the discount window opens
The fifth consecutive hike. Vendor expectations finally broke. The first real 'buyer's market' since 2019.
5 min read
August 2022: dual-occupancy starts to outperform
With rents tight and rates climbing, the dual-rental-income asset class delivered the cleanest cash-flow profile in the market.
5 min read
July 2022: another 50bps, and rental yields wake up
Cash rate at 1.35%. National vacancy rate fell to 1.0% — the tightest on record.
5 min read
June 2022: 50bp hike and the EOFY pivot
The RBA went 50bps in June. EOFY 2022 closed with the slowest national growth in two years.
5 min read
May 2022: liftoff — the first RBA hike since 2010
On 3 May 2022 the RBA hiked 25bps to 0.35%. The Labor election victory followed on 21 May. Two structural changes inside three weeks.
5 min read
April 2022: the last sub-3% fixed offers disappear
By mid-April the cheapest 3-year fixed mortgage was 3.59%. Six months earlier the same product had been 1.89%.
5 min read
March 2022: the 2022 Budget and the fuel-excise cut
An election Budget with fuel excise halved and a one-off $420 LMITO top-up. Stimulative into a tightening cycle — exactly the wrong setup for inflation.
5 min read
February 2022: war in Ukraine and the energy-cost transmission
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Oil to $120. Australian inflation forecasts tore upward inside a week.
5 min read
January 2022: Omicron, but the bigger story is rates
Omicron dominated headlines. The CPI print at the end of January dominated portfolios.
5 min read
December 2021: the boom prints its peak — and Brisbane takes the baton
FY22-H1 closed with national values up 22.1% YoY. Sydney momentum slowed. Brisbane accelerated to +30% YoY.
5 min read
November 2021: the RBA abandons the yield target
The three-year yield target was quietly killed. Fixed mortgage rates began climbing well before the first cash-rate hike.
5 min read
October 2021: APRA finally moves — serviceability buffer to 3.0%
APRA lifted the mortgage serviceability buffer from 2.5% to 3.0%. The first formal macroprudential brake of the cycle.
5 min read
September 2021: $1m median in Sydney for units
Sydney's median dwelling value crossed $1.3m. Unit medians crossed $830k. Affordability metrics broke records that had stood since the early 2000s.
5 min read
August 2021: NDIS / SDA enters the institutional conversation
Specialist Disability Accommodation yields above 10% started showing up in mainstream investor coverage. Sky News asked if it was real.
5 min read
July 2021: Delta lockdowns return — and prices keep climbing
Sydney went into a four-month lockdown. CoreLogic posted +1.6% for July. The decoupling of mobility and prices was complete.
5 min read
June 2021: EOFY 2021 and the strongest financial year on record
FY21 closed with national dwelling values up 13.5% — the strongest financial year since 2003.
5 min read
May 2021: the 2021–22 Budget and the LMITO extension
The Federal Budget extended LMITO for another year and added $7.8 billion in tax offsets. The borrowing-capacity tailwind kept blowing.
5 min read
April 2021: refinancing into the bottom of the cost curve
Two-year fixed rates fell to 1.79%. Investors with 2018 loans on 4.0%+ were leaving $400/week on the table.
5 min read
March 2021: 2.8% in one month — the fastest move since 1988
The combined-capitals index rose 2.8% in March 2021. Sky News kept asking if it was a bubble. The data said it was supply.
5 min read
February 2021: townhouses become the rational play
House-and-land queues blew out. The clean asset switch was infill townhouses — same depreciation envelope, half the lead time.
5 min read
January 2021: the vertical move begins
The 2021 boom didn't sneak up on anyone watching closely. By late January it was the only story on Sky News business.
5 min read
December 2020: clearance rates above 80% — the recovery is real
Sydney auction clearance hit 83%. The 'COVID discount' narrative died before Christmas.
5 min read
November 2020: the RBA goes to 0.10%
Cash rate to 0.10%, three-year yield target to 0.10%, $100 billion of QE. Sky News asked 'how low can it go?' The honest answer was: this is the floor.
5 min read
October 2020: the Budget that brought forward tax cuts
Stage 2 tax cuts were back-dated to 1 July 2020. The instant asset write-off was uncapped for most businesses. The Budget was unambiguously pro-investment.
5 min read
September 2020: First Home Loan Deposit Scheme expanded to new builds
The federal government carved out an additional 10,000 places exclusively for newly-built homes. The owner-occupier and investor incentive stacks started to align.
5 min read
August 2020: Melbourne's Stage 4 and the two-speed market
Melbourne went into the world's longest lockdown. Brisbane and Perth quietly hit fresh highs.
5 min read
July 2020: the first depreciation cycle of the new era
With JobKeeper extended and rates at zero, the depreciation schedule on a new-build asset was worth more than ever — because every dollar of deduction was sheltered from a higher effective marginal rate.
5 min read
June 2020: the bottom that wasn't
By end of financial year, capital city values had fallen just 0.8% peak-to-trough. The 'COVID property crash' never arrived.
5 min read
May 2020: HomeBuilder is announced — the new-build thesis goes mainstream
$25,000 grants for new builds and substantial renovations. Sky News asked if it was enough. I said it was the start of a multi-year supply story.
5 min read
April 2020: the emergency rate cut and what it telegraphed
The RBA cut to 0.25% and launched QE for the first time in its history. The signal to property investors was louder than the cut itself.
5 min read
Sky News, March 2020: property in the first week of the pandemic
I went on Sky News the week the WHO declared a pandemic. The question every investor was asking: do we freeze, or do we position?
5 min read
Client Voices / 01 — 20
Built on outcomes, not promises.
"Dax doesn't sell property — he engineers portfolios. The thesis he laid out for us in 2024 has played out almost line for line. Two new-builds settled, both cash-flow positive within months."
"I've worked with three buyer's agents over fifteen years. Hera is in a different league. The data, the discipline, the post-Budget framing — it's the most sophisticated property advice I've ever paid for."
"He called the 12 May Budget shift months before the announcement. We had already pivoted the portfolio to new-builds. That single piece of advice has saved us a six-figure tax position."
"What sets Dax apart is the AI-led analysis. He showed me a corridor I would have never considered, backed by twenty pages of data. Eighteen months later it's the strongest performer in my portfolio."
"Dax's Sky News commentary during COVID was the only voice that made sense. When he started Hera, I was the first to sign up. Three properties in, my equity position has more than doubled."
"First-class advisory. Hera ran a full strategy session before we spent a dollar. The discipline of waiting for the right asset has compounded into real wealth."
"We're a dual-income family that nearly bought the wrong property in 2023. Dax pulled us back, walked us through the numbers, and put us into a Logan growth-corridor new-build instead. Up 22% on paper already."
"I've read every property book on the market. Dax's is the only one that takes AI seriously as an investor's tool. The methodology in Hera is the book brought to life."
"Calm, methodical, and zero hype. After two calls I knew Dax was the real deal. We've now settled four properties through Hera and never had a regret."
"The post-Budget transition advice alone was worth the engagement fee ten times over. Hera is the only firm I've seen translate legislation into an actionable buy list."
"Dax treats your money like his own. Every recommendation came with risk, downside, and the maths. That kind of integrity is rare in this industry."
"I came in skeptical of buyer's agents. I left a Hera client. The depth of suburb-level research is genuinely unmatched — I've never been shown that level of work."
"Hera helped me build a three-property portfolio in eighteen months, all grandfathered before the 2027 cut-off. The strategy was crystal clear from day one."
"Dax's read on the Western Sydney Airport corridor was the single most profitable conversation I've had this decade. We acted, settled, and the capital growth has been remarkable."
"Refreshingly honest. Hera told us our second property wasn't the right time, even though it cost them a fee. That earned a client for life."
"The Hera dashboard, the data rooms, the comparables — it feels institutional. I've worked in private equity and the rigour is genuinely on par."
"My accountant cried reading the depreciation schedule on the property Dax found us. That's a first. Cash-flow positive year one, fully compliant for the new rules."
"I'd seen Dax on Sky News for years before I picked up the phone. He's exactly the same in person — sharp, generous with knowledge, and laser-focused on outcomes."
"From the first strategy call to settlement, every milestone hit on time. Hera makes the most stressful purchase of your life feel like a managed process."
"Worth every cent. Twice over. The grandfathered new-build Dax sourced for us is the single best financial decision we've made as a couple."
The window for transition
is narrowing.
Between now and 1 July 2027, every settled new-build locks in grandfathered tax treatment. Hera's pipeline is sized accordingly.