December 2024: CY2024 — Perth +19.1%, Sydney +2.3%

Sky News asked whether Perth had topped. The data said no: vacancy at 0.6%, median price-to-income still well below Sydney/Brisbane, population growth running 3%+. The peak was probable in 2025 but not in 2024.

With one RBA cut likely in H1 2025 and continued supply constraint, 2025 base case was further dispersion: Perth/Brisbane moderate gains, Sydney recovery on rate-cut tailwind, Melbourne flat-to-slightly-negative. The federal-budget cycle had not yet entered the picture.