Research Notes
What the desk is reading.
- Tax Strategy18 May 20269 min read
The grandfathering deadline: a pre-1 July 2027 portfolio checklist
Every established-stock position settled before 1 July 2027 keeps full pre-Budget tax treatment for life. Here's the audit we're running on every client portfolio.
- Tax Strategy16 May 20267 min read
CGT indexation vs the 50% discount: the new-home exemption explained
From 1 July 2027 the 50% CGT discount is replaced with inflation indexation — except for new homes. We model both outcomes side-by-side.
- Tax Strategy13 May 20268 min read
Why new builds are the only negatively-geared play from 1 July 2027
The day after the Federal Budget, the investor playbook narrowed to a single asset class. Here's why the smart money has already started rotating.
- Asset Selection4 May 202610 min read
House-and-land vs off-the-plan townhouses under the post-2027 regime
Both asset classes retain full tax treatment. The difference is in cash flow profile, depreciation curve, and corridor exposure. We model both side-by-side.
- Asset Selection22 April 20268 min read
NDIS / SDA: the highest-yield asset class the Budget didn't touch
Specialist Disability Accommodation continues to deliver 10-14% gross yields, fully government-backed, and sits inside the new-build tax envelope. Here's the structural case.
- Asset Selection10 April 20267 min read
Dual-occupancy: how two incomes on one title rewrite the cash-flow model
A single block, two dwellings, two rental incomes, one set of land costs. In a post-2027 world where every new build counts, dual-occ is doing more work than it gets credit for.
- Policy2 April 20266 min read
The 5% Deposit Scheme is uncapped — what changed 1 October 2025
Quietly, the most important structural change to first-home-buyer access in a generation has gone live. Here's how investor strategy bends around it.
- Asset Selection28 March 20269 min read
Co-living and build-to-rent: the institutional thesis arriving for retail investors
Two asset classes that lived inside super funds and REITs are now accessible at retail scale — and both qualify for post-2027 tax treatment.
- Markets15 March 202611 min read
Where the $2B Infrastructure Fund actually lands: 2026 corridor map
The Budget's housing-enabling infrastructure money is not evenly distributed. Hera's corridor index shows where the capital is going — and what that does to land values.
- Tax Strategy2 March 20268 min read
SMSF property strategy under the new CGT regime
Self-managed super was already a strong structure for property. The 2026 CGT changes — and the new-build carve-out — make it materially stronger again.
- Tax Strategy18 February 20267 min read
Depreciation schedules after 1 July 2027: still the hidden return driver
Division 40 and Division 43 deductions are untouched by the Budget — but they only apply meaningfully to new builds. Here's why the depreciation gap widens from 2027.
- Markets4 February 20268 min read
Reading the RBA cycle: rates, serviceability, and the 2026-2028 acquisition window
The cash rate trajectory and the grandfathering deadline are on a collision course. The investors who time both win the cycle.
- Tax Strategy22 December 20259 min read
End of 2025: positioning the portfolio for the 18-month grandfathering runway
With 18 months until the 1 July 2027 grandfathering deadline, December is the moment to lock in 2026 acquisition timing. We share the framework we are running with every client.
- Policy15 December 20257 min read
Approvals soften in December — but 2025 finishes on a structural high
Dwelling approvals dipped 14.9% in December, yet Q4 finished 3.6% up on the quarter. The HIA's read: 2025 ended with the strongest annual base in three years.
- Markets8 December 20257 min read
December 2025 dwelling prices: the upswing cools, the new-build gap widens
Cotality's December index shows the broader upswing slowing to +0.5% for the month. Under the surface, new-build product is decoupling from the secondary market.
- Markets30 November 20256 min read
4,000 lots at Karnup: Western Australia joins the growth-corridor conversation
The WA Government's Karnup release adds 4,000 residential lots south of Perth and signals that the corridor playbook is no longer just an east-coast story.
- Markets22 November 202510 min read
Penrith and the Western Sydney Airport: positioning ahead of 2026 opening
The $5.3 billion Western Sydney Airport opens in 2026, with Penrith 25km away at the centre of Australia's largest planned employment corridor. We map the investor entry points.
- Policy17 November 20257 min read
3,000 homes at Catherine Field: South-West Sydney's next supply unlock
The Minns Government's fast-tracked rezoning of the 164-hectare Springfield Road precinct adds another 3,000 homes to South-West Sydney's pipeline — and reshapes the corridor's investor math.
- Markets5 November 20256 min read
November RBA pause: what a holding pattern means for new-build acquisition
The RBA's November decision to hold rates steady extends the borrowing-capacity window without unleashing a price surge. For new-build investors, that is the ideal acquisition backdrop.
- Markets29 October 20257 min read
$283K per permitted lot: what the Logan corridor transaction tells us
Ausbuild's $40m off-market purchase of a 141-lot Chambers Flat site re-priced the Logan growth corridor in a single transaction. We unpack the read-through for retail investors.
- Markets23 October 20256 min read
Kinma Valley first move-ins: the family-home signal investors should not miss
The first families have moved into Stockland's Kinma Valley in Moreton Bay. PropTrack data confirms what the project's velocity already signalled: families want larger new homes, and they want them in growth corridors.
- Markets14 October 20258 min read
October 2025: where the institutional money is buying corridor land
From Logan to Western Sydney to Moreton Bay, October's off-market land transactions tell a clear story about which corridors institutional capital believes in.
- Policy1 October 20257 min read
Launch day: what changes for new-build investors when FHBs go uncapped
From today, every eligible first home buyer in Australia can access a 5% deposit with the Commonwealth guarantee. The structural floor under new-build demand has just been poured.
- Markets15 September 20255 min read
September 2025: the final pre-Budget acquisition window
Q3 2025 closed with the strongest combined-capitals quarterly print in two years. The market entered Q4 with renewed momentum — and seven months until the 2026 Budget would change the rules entirely.
- Markets15 August 20255 min read
August 2025: Perth crosses Melbourne
Perth's median dwelling value exceeded Melbourne's in August 2025. A complete reordering of the Australian capital league table in three years.
- Markets15 July 20255 min read
July 2025: the third cut
Cash rate to 3.60% on 8 July 2025. Three cuts in five months. Investor activity hit a 30-month high.
- Markets15 June 20255 min read
June 2025: EOFY 2025 — recovery in motion across all capitals
FY25 closed with combined capitals +5.5%. Perth +12.1%, Brisbane +8.0%, Adelaide +9.4%, Sydney +2.7%, Melbourne –1.8%.
- Markets15 May 20255 min read
May 2025: federal election and the housing platform
The Albanese Government was re-elected with an expanded majority on 3 May 2025. Housing was the dominant policy issue of the campaign.
- Markets15 April 20255 min read
April 2025: the second cut
On 1 April the RBA cut a further 25bps to 3.85%. Two cuts in two months. Bond market priced terminal at 3.10% by year-end.
- Markets15 March 20255 min read
March 2025: borrowing capacity reopens
APRA's serviceability buffer stayed at 3.0% but the underlying assessment rate fell with the cash-rate cut. Maximum borrowing for a typical investor expanded ~5%.
- Markets15 February 20255 min read
February 2025: the first RBA cut
On 18 February 2025 the RBA cut 25bps to 4.10%. The first cut of the cycle. Property markets responded within weeks.
- Markets15 January 20255 min read
January 2025: vacancy ticks up — the first cooling signal
National vacancy rose to 1.6% from 1.0% twelve months earlier. The rental crisis didn't end, but it stopped tightening.
- Markets15 December 20245 min read
December 2024: CY2024 — Perth +19.1%, Sydney +2.3%
Calendar 2024 closed with extreme dispersion: Perth +19.1%, Brisbane +12.1%, Adelaide +13.1%, Sydney +2.3%, Melbourne –3.0%.
- Markets15 November 20245 min read
November 2024: the construction pipeline cracks
Multinational builder Beechwood Homes collapsed in late November. Several smaller Tier-3 builders followed. Build-cost inflation re-accelerated.
- Markets15 October 20245 min read
October 2024: the US Fed cuts 50bps
Powell delivered a 50bp cut. The Australian dollar weakened. Bond market priced first RBA cut for Q1 2025.
- Markets15 September 20245 min read
September 2024: Sydney rolls over
Sydney values fell 0.1% in September — the first monthly decline since the recovery began. Affordability finally bit.
- Asset Selection15 August 20245 min read
August 2024: SDA volumes hit new records
NDIA SDA payments rose past $1.2 billion annual run-rate. Investor enquiry into SDA product reached an all-time high.
- Markets15 July 20245 min read
July 2024: the soft data turns
Q2 CPI printed at 3.8% YoY — the surprise was the persistence. The first cut got pushed from late 2024 to early 2025. Property markets ignored it.
- Markets15 June 20245 min read
June 2024: EOFY 2024 — Perth runs the table
FY24: combined capitals +8.0%, Perth +23.6%, Brisbane +15.8%, Adelaide +15.4%, Sydney +6.3%, Melbourne +1.3%.
- Markets15 May 20245 min read
May 2024: 2024 Budget — Help-to-Buy and Future Made in Australia
Chalmers' third Budget. The Help-to-Buy shared-equity scheme expanded. Help-to-Build incentives for institutional BTR. Modest tax measures, big supply-side signal.
- Tax Strategy15 April 20245 min read
April 2024: depreciation reform proposals surface
A discussion paper out of Treasury floated tightening Division 40 depreciation rules on residential. Nothing changed — but the signalling was unmistakable.
- Markets15 March 20245 min read
March 2024: another pause, and the soft-landing call
Cash rate held at 4.35%. US Fed paused. The 'soft landing' became consensus globally. Bond market priced first Australian cut for late 2024.
- Markets15 February 20245 min read
February 2024: the rental crisis deepens
National vacancy at 0.7%. Rental growth still running 8.5% YoY. The political conversation pivoted permanently to supply.
- Markets15 January 20245 min read
January 2024: Stage 3 redesigned
Albanese restructured Stage 3 tax cuts to skew toward low-and-middle income. Average household gained roughly $1,500. Borrowing capacity at the median expanded for the first time since 2021.
- Markets15 December 20235 min read
December 2023: CY2023 prints +8.1% nationally
Calendar 2023: combined capitals +8.1%, Perth +15.2%, Brisbane +13.1%, Sydney +11.1%, Melbourne +3.5%, Hobart –0.8%.
- Markets15 November 20235 min read
November 2023: Brisbane crosses Melbourne
Brisbane's median dwelling value exceeded Melbourne's for the first time in modern record-keeping. The capital-city league table re-ordered in real time.
- Markets15 October 20235 min read
October 2023: Bullock's first hike
New RBA Governor, same playbook. Cash rate to 4.35%. The market briefly wobbled — and then absorbed it.
- Asset Selection15 September 20235 min read
September 2023: co-living and rooming houses go mainstream
QLD planning reforms expanded permissible co-living typologies. Investor enquiry into 6–8 bed rooming-house product spiked.
- Markets15 August 20235 min read
August 2023: rents up 25% since the start of the pandemic
Capital-city rents had risen approximately 25% since March 2020. The cumulative compounding rental yield repriced the entire investor proposition.
- Markets15 July 20235 min read
July 2023: another pause — and the build-cost story stabilises
Cash rate held at 4.10%. ABS construction-cost index slowed to +3.2% YoY from +14% the year prior. New-build economics started to make sense again.
- Markets15 June 20235 min read
June 2023: EOFY 2023 closes with the recovery in motion
FY23 closed with national values down 2.0% — barely. Brisbane +0.5%, Perth +4.0%, Adelaide +0.0%. The drawdown story was already historical.
- Markets15 May 20235 min read
May 2023: the 2023 Budget, immigration and housing
Net overseas migration projected at 400,000 for 2022–23 and 315,000 for 2023–24. Build approvals running at decade-lows. The supply–demand gap formalised in Budget papers.
- Markets15 April 20235 min read
April 2023: the recovery prints
Sydney +1.3% for the month. The fastest turn from peak-to-trough-to-positive since 1989.
- Markets15 March 20235 min read
March 2023: SVB collapses — and the RBA pauses
Silicon Valley Bank failed on 10 March. Global rate expectations collapsed inside a week. The RBA hiked once more in April and then held.
- Markets15 February 20235 min read
February 2023: the RBA signals more to come
Cash rate to 3.35%. Lowe's statement removed the 'patient' language. Bond market priced terminal at 4.10%.
- Markets15 January 20235 min read
January 2023: vacancy at 0.8% and rents at +10% YoY
The rental crisis went mainstream. Sky News led every property segment with vacancy and immigration.
- Markets15 December 20225 min read
December 2022: the slowest growth Christmas since 2018
EOFY-H1 closed with national values down 5.3% calendar-year. The first negative calendar year since 2018.
- Markets15 November 20225 min read
November 2022: the eighth straight hike
Cash rate at 2.85%. National values down 7.0% from peak. And listings still 20% below trend.
- Tax Strategy15 October 20225 min read
October 2022: the Labor Budget — restraint and the housing accord
Chalmers' first Budget. Modest stimulus, but the National Housing Accord set a 1-million-new-home target for 2024–2029. The supply story was now official policy.
- Markets15 September 20225 min read
September 2022: cash rate to 2.35% and the discount window opens
The fifth consecutive hike. Vendor expectations finally broke. The first real 'buyer's market' since 2019.
- Asset Selection15 August 20225 min read
August 2022: dual-occupancy starts to outperform
With rents tight and rates climbing, the dual-rental-income asset class delivered the cleanest cash-flow profile in the market.
- Markets15 July 20225 min read
July 2022: another 50bps, and rental yields wake up
Cash rate at 1.35%. National vacancy rate fell to 1.0% — the tightest on record.
- Markets15 June 20225 min read
June 2022: 50bp hike and the EOFY pivot
The RBA went 50bps in June. EOFY 2022 closed with the slowest national growth in two years.
- Markets15 May 20225 min read
May 2022: liftoff — the first RBA hike since 2010
On 3 May 2022 the RBA hiked 25bps to 0.35%. The Labor election victory followed on 21 May. Two structural changes inside three weeks.
- Markets15 April 20225 min read
April 2022: the last sub-3% fixed offers disappear
By mid-April the cheapest 3-year fixed mortgage was 3.59%. Six months earlier the same product had been 1.89%.
- Tax Strategy15 March 20225 min read
March 2022: the 2022 Budget and the fuel-excise cut
An election Budget with fuel excise halved and a one-off $420 LMITO top-up. Stimulative into a tightening cycle — exactly the wrong setup for inflation.
- Markets15 February 20225 min read
February 2022: war in Ukraine and the energy-cost transmission
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Oil to $120. Australian inflation forecasts tore upward inside a week.
- Markets15 January 20225 min read
January 2022: Omicron, but the bigger story is rates
Omicron dominated headlines. The CPI print at the end of January dominated portfolios.
- Markets15 December 20215 min read
December 2021: the boom prints its peak — and Brisbane takes the baton
FY22-H1 closed with national values up 22.1% YoY. Sydney momentum slowed. Brisbane accelerated to +30% YoY.
- Markets15 November 20215 min read
November 2021: the RBA abandons the yield target
The three-year yield target was quietly killed. Fixed mortgage rates began climbing well before the first cash-rate hike.
- Markets15 October 20215 min read
October 2021: APRA finally moves — serviceability buffer to 3.0%
APRA lifted the mortgage serviceability buffer from 2.5% to 3.0%. The first formal macroprudential brake of the cycle.
- Markets15 September 20215 min read
September 2021: $1m median in Sydney for units
Sydney's median dwelling value crossed $1.3m. Unit medians crossed $830k. Affordability metrics broke records that had stood since the early 2000s.
- Asset Selection15 August 20215 min read
August 2021: NDIS / SDA enters the institutional conversation
Specialist Disability Accommodation yields above 10% started showing up in mainstream investor coverage. Sky News asked if it was real.
- Markets15 July 20215 min read
July 2021: Delta lockdowns return — and prices keep climbing
Sydney went into a four-month lockdown. CoreLogic posted +1.6% for July. The decoupling of mobility and prices was complete.
- Markets15 June 20215 min read
June 2021: EOFY 2021 and the strongest financial year on record
FY21 closed with national dwelling values up 13.5% — the strongest financial year since 2003.
- Markets15 May 20215 min read
May 2021: the 2021–22 Budget and the LMITO extension
The Federal Budget extended LMITO for another year and added $7.8 billion in tax offsets. The borrowing-capacity tailwind kept blowing.
- Tax Strategy15 April 20215 min read
April 2021: refinancing into the bottom of the cost curve
Two-year fixed rates fell to 1.79%. Investors with 2018 loans on 4.0%+ were leaving $400/week on the table.
- Markets15 March 20215 min read
March 2021: 2.8% in one month — the fastest move since 1988
The combined-capitals index rose 2.8% in March 2021. Sky News kept asking if it was a bubble. The data said it was supply.
- Asset Selection15 February 20215 min read
February 2021: townhouses become the rational play
House-and-land queues blew out. The clean asset switch was infill townhouses — same depreciation envelope, half the lead time.
- Markets15 January 20215 min read
January 2021: the vertical move begins
The 2021 boom didn't sneak up on anyone watching closely. By late January it was the only story on Sky News business.
- Markets15 December 20205 min read
December 2020: clearance rates above 80% — the recovery is real
Sydney auction clearance hit 83%. The 'COVID discount' narrative died before Christmas.
- Markets15 November 20205 min read
November 2020: the RBA goes to 0.10%
Cash rate to 0.10%, three-year yield target to 0.10%, $100 billion of QE. Sky News asked 'how low can it go?' The honest answer was: this is the floor.
- Tax Strategy15 October 20205 min read
October 2020: the Budget that brought forward tax cuts
Stage 2 tax cuts were back-dated to 1 July 2020. The instant asset write-off was uncapped for most businesses. The Budget was unambiguously pro-investment.
- Asset Selection15 September 20205 min read
September 2020: First Home Loan Deposit Scheme expanded to new builds
The federal government carved out an additional 10,000 places exclusively for newly-built homes. The owner-occupier and investor incentive stacks started to align.
- Markets15 August 20205 min read
August 2020: Melbourne's Stage 4 and the two-speed market
Melbourne went into the world's longest lockdown. Brisbane and Perth quietly hit fresh highs.
- Tax Strategy15 July 20205 min read
July 2020: the first depreciation cycle of the new era
With JobKeeper extended and rates at zero, the depreciation schedule on a new-build asset was worth more than ever — because every dollar of deduction was sheltered from a higher effective marginal rate.
- Markets15 June 20205 min read
June 2020: the bottom that wasn't
By end of financial year, capital city values had fallen just 0.8% peak-to-trough. The 'COVID property crash' never arrived.
- Asset Selection15 May 20205 min read
May 2020: HomeBuilder is announced — the new-build thesis goes mainstream
$25,000 grants for new builds and substantial renovations. Sky News asked if it was enough. I said it was the start of a multi-year supply story.
- Markets15 April 20205 min read
April 2020: the emergency rate cut and what it telegraphed
The RBA cut to 0.25% and launched QE for the first time in its history. The signal to property investors was louder than the cut itself.
- Markets15 March 20205 min read
Sky News, March 2020: property in the first week of the pandemic
I went on Sky News the week the WHO declared a pandemic. The question every investor was asking: do we freeze, or do we position?