July 2024: the soft data turns
Q2 CPI printed at 3.8% YoY — the surprise was the persistence. The first cut got pushed from late 2024 to early 2025. Property markets ignored it.
Why prices kept going
With listings still 18% below trend and rental yields at multi-year highs, the rate-rerate story dominated the rate-cut-timing story. CoreLogic posted +0.5% for July nationally. Perth posted +2.0% for the month — its 13th consecutive positive monthly print.
The takeaway
By mid-2024 the property cycle and the rate cycle had decoupled. Supply was the dominant variable. Investors who built thesis on supply were rewarded; investors who built thesis on rates were repeatedly wrong-footed.
Dax Stanley
Founder & Principal Strategist, Hera Property. #1 international bestselling author of Real Estate Investing Using ChatGPT.