December 2022: the slowest growth Christmas since 2018

CoreLogic CY2022: combined capitals –5.3%, regional Australia –3.8%, Hobart the weakest at –4.6%. Perth was the only capital positive for the year at +3.6% — the supply-constrained iron-ore story decoupling from the broader cycle.

With the cash rate at 3.10% and the market pricing two more hikes, the 2023 base case was a further 3–5% downside before a flat 2024. That base case lasted exactly three months — by Q2 2023, capital values had bottomed.