November 2022: the eighth straight hike

Every prior Australian property drawdown of this magnitude had been accompanied by listing surges and forced sales. This one wasn't. Mortgage arrears stayed below 1.0%. The drawdown was almost entirely a function of borrowing capacity, not distress.

An asset-price drawdown without distressed selling has a fast recovery profile when rates plateau. The bear-market floor was likely to be set within 6–9 months of the final hike — wherever that landed.