January 2025: vacancy ticks up — the first cooling signal

Net overseas migration moderated from 528,000 in calendar 2023 to a projected 350,000 for 2024–25. Investor activity through 2023–24 had delivered roughly 30,000 additional rental dwellings into the system. Demand and supply began to converge.

Annual capital-city rental growth slowed to 4.5% YoY from 12.1% twelve months earlier. Still positive, still above the cost of inflation — but the era of 10%+ rental growth was behind the market.