Approvals soften in December — but 2025 finishes on a structural high
Dwelling approvals dipped 14.9% in December, yet Q4 finished 3.6% up on the quarter. The HIA's read: 2025 ended with the strongest annual base in three years.
The ABS dwelling-approvals release for December 2025 showed a 14.9% month-on-month fall to 15,542. Beneath the headline, Q4 approvals rose 3.6% on the quarter, and the HIA characterised the year as ending on a structurally high base — the strongest annual platform for new-build delivery in three years.
For investors, the December dip is noise; the Q4 trend is signal. The annual base of approvals is the leading indicator of new-build supply 18-24 months forward, and the trajectory has firmed materially over the back half of 2025.
Reading approvals as an investor
More approvals do not threaten new-build investor returns when they are concentrated in corridors with legislated demand support (the 5% Deposit Scheme, the 100,000 Homes program, infrastructure funding). They threaten investor returns only in corridors without that demand anchor. Selectivity inside the rising approvals tide is the entire game in 2026.
Dax Stanley
Founder & Principal Strategist, Hera Property. #1 international bestselling author of Real Estate Investing Using ChatGPT.